◆ Independent analysis · Not for redistribution ◆
▸ Sahel HC ⬒ Free access Restricted 02 Oct 2026
France's departure and a no-foreign-bases doctrine open a structural window for capacity-building partners in Senegal — and, under strict conditions, across the AES border.
#defence cooperation #maritime security #European Peace Facility #border security ▸ Sahel HC ⬒ Free access 02 Oct 2026
The State has moved from partner to operator just as its finances enter a debt treatment. Where services, equipment and financing can enter the next cycle, and on what terms.
#Sangomar #GTA #Yakaar-Teranga #Petrosen ▸ Sahel MC ⬒ Free access 02 Oct 2026
Senegal enters Q4 2026 under a sovereign debt treatment, a split executive and a degraded eastern corridor. Where foreign entrants can still work, and on what terms.
#IMF #debt treatment #Faye–Sonko #PASTEF ▸ Sahel HC ⬒ Free access 15 Jun 2026
NIE-format assessment of the political, security, ESG and economic risks in Senegal's oil and gas sector, with fifteen annotated key judgements.
#Sangomar #GTA #Petrosen #resource nationalism ▸ Sahel MC ⬒ Free access 01 Jun 2026
Influence doctrine, operational apparatus and countermeasures: a mid-2026 map of Russia's informational and politico-security grip on the continent.
#Russia #Africa Corps #influence operations #AES ▸ Sahel MC ⬒ Free access Restricted 15 May 2026
Multi-actor reading of the 25 April offensive: regional interest convergence and trajectories to 2030.
#Morocco #Algeria #Western Sahara #Atlantic corridor ▸ Sahel HC ⬒ Free access 07 May 2026
City-by-city assessment for short-duration business travel, with prohibited zones and movement protocols.
#risk assessment #business travel #kidnap and ransom #movement protocols ▸ Sahel HC ⬒ Free access 07 May 2026
NIE-format estimate: key judgements, intelligence gaps, risk matrix by threat, scenarios to 2028.
#JNIM #Africa Corps #AES #Bamako blockade ▸ Sahel HC ⬒ Free access 05 May 2026
Eight-axis security brief following the 25 April 2026 offensive. Threat level critical; no zone of the territory can be considered secure.
#JNIM #Bamako blockade #overland movement #airport security ▸ Gulf of Guinea MC ⬒ Free access 15 Mar 2026
Five-axis assessment for a short business trip, with a counter-intuitive finding on terrorist risk.
#crime #kidnapping #corruption #Boko Haram ▸ Central Africa HC ⬒ Free access 15 Mar 2026
Seven-axis assessment for a short business trip, sharply differentiating between the capital and the Sudanese border zone.
#RSF #Sudan #Boko Haram #refugees ▸ Central Africa MC ⬒ Free access 15 Feb 2026
Five-axis assessment for a short stay in the Centre and West regions, with a documented divergence from international advisories.
#urban crime #administrative corruption #Biya succession #Ambazonia No analysis matches the current filters.
deterministicdrift
by Pierre Staneck
Field Intelligence. Operational Clarity.
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