▸Sahel MC
Mali — Geopolitical Perspective and Forecast
Multi-actor reading of the 25 April offensive: regional interest convergence and trajectories to 2030.
MC
Analytical confidence level
Moderate confidence
Assessed from indicators; not fully confirmed.
Public abstract
Free accessAnalysis that moves past the binary junta-versus-armed-groups reading to place May 2026 within a wider regional influence competition. Judgements annotated by confidence.
- Moroccan logic: the Atlantic access corridor and the Nigeria–Morocco gas pipeline.
- Algerian repositioning after 25 April and what it reveals.
- China as the absent actor: reading the silence as an analytical signal.
- Four forecast configurations for 2026–2030, in descending order of probability.
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