▸Sahel HC
Senegal — Petroleum Sector Risk Analysis, June 2026
NIE-format assessment of the political, security, ESG and economic risks in Senegal's oil and gas sector, with fifteen annotated key judgements.
HC
Analytical confidence level
High confidence
Confirmed by multiple independent, credible sources.
Public abstract
Free accessA full country and operational risk assessment of Senegal's hydrocarbon sector in the window opened by Ousmane Sonko's dismissal. Six crossed analytical grids, project-by-project mapping, a consolidated risk matrix, four scenarios to 24 months and an early-warning device. Updated in October 2026 by the Oil and Gas Risk and Opportunity Analysis.
- [HC] Social expectations tied to oil revenue are structurally entrenched.
- [MC] The dominant risk is not expropriation but the slow erosion of profitability.
- [MC] Arbitration risk at 12 months is moderate, and aimed at leverage rather than rupture.
- [GA] State of contact between Petrosen and Chinese national oil companies — an explicit intelligence gap.
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