Mali — Strategic Intelligence Assessment, May 2026

Full NIE-format estimate of the Malian crisis after the 25 April 2026 offensive. Nine key judgements annotated by confidence level, nine explicit intelligence gaps, operational profiles of the armed actors, a risk matrix by threat, and three scenarios with their activation conditions.

• [HC] Mali has entered a phase of accelerated structural security fragmentation.
• [HC] Kidal is lost to the junta in the short term.
• [HC] The Bamako blockade is the decisive tipping indicator.
• [MC] The JNIM–FLA alliance is tactical; armed competition between the two is probable.