Senegal

Bottom line

Faye chairs ECOWAS abroad but has lost his majority at home: PM Lô's technocrats govern against a Sonko-run Assembly while Dakar seeks creditor deals by December and an IMF Board vote. Eastern-border risk is contained for now; political and payment risk dominate until the dissolution question is settled (window opens ~2 Dec 2026).

Key judgments

1. KJ-1 HC Cohabitation in all but name: technocrats govern, PASTEF legislates. Every budget and reform now needs a deal or a dissolution.
2. KJ-2 MC The IMF track holds: creditors met 6 Oct, deals sought by December, bondholders reject a haircut. Board approval hinges on the budget vote.
3. KJ-3 MC Eastern spillover is contained for now: JNIM is holding back (Crisis Group), but Bakel and Saraya remain the soft flank.
4. KJ-4 LC Faye's regional capital (ECOWAS chair, Commission seat) outweighs his domestic base; expect him to trade on it at home.

Risk matrix

Watchlist

Q4

Revised 2026 budget in a PASTEF-run Assembly

Nov?

IMF Board vote on the ECF (waiver required)

≥ 2 Dec

Assembly dissolution window opens (Art. 87)

Dec

Creditor agreements in principle targeted

2027

Local elections: PASTEF's territorial test

Rolling

JNIM tempo in Mali's Kayes region

Entry points

1. R-01 Bet on assets that outlive the cycle: port, logistics and gas-to-power concessions rather than state-budget contracts.
2. R-02 Ring-fence sovereign risk: export-credit, DFI or multilateral cover for any State or SOE counterparty; no unsecured receivables.
3. R-03 Engage both camps now: the Presidency/Primature and the Assembly will each shape contract reviews after the dissolution call.

Sources

[HC] Decrees 2026-1129/1130 (presidence.sn, primature.sn) · MEFP notice of 30 Sep 2026 · ECOWAS 69th summit, Freetown, 19 Jul 2026 · DP World releases. [MC] Reuters, France 24, Seneweb (6 Oct creditor brief), APS, Le Soleil, Crisis Group (via SenePlus), Megatrends Afrika, FinDevLab. [LC] Opinion and aggregator sites. Built from open sources only; the field layer (◆) is withheld.

Bottom line

Producing assets perform. Dakar is now selling growth (104 blocks on offer, a partner sought for Yakaar-Teranga, a US$2–3 bn second refinery: AEW, 15 Oct), but every deal waits on a presidency without a majority, an IMF Board vote and a debt treatment. Window open for services and covered finance; equity after Q1 2027.

Key judgments

1. KJ-1 HC Operations are not the risk: Sangomar and GTA Ph1 run at or above nameplate. Exposure sits in the next decisions.
2. KJ-2 MC Resource nationalism outlived Sonko's exit: the Yakaar takeover and the Woodside tax case stand; Petrosen's DG was replaced on 1 July.
3. KJ-3 MC Partner search confirmed by Minister Diouf at AEW (15 Oct), as judged here on 4 Oct: a Petrosen-only US$7.5 bn Yakaar FID in 2026 is now unlikely.
4. KJ-4 MC The Executive–Assembly clash peaks at the dissolution window (~2 Dec): budget and sector rules may freeze into Q1 2027.

Risk matrix

Watchlist

Now

Yakaar partner search · 104-block offer round

Nov?

IMF Board vote on the ECF (waiver required)

≥ 2 Dec

Assembly dissolution window opens (Art. 87)

Dec

Creditor agreements in principle targeted

2026–27

GTA Ph2 decision · Sangomar Ph2 · 2nd refinery

Open

ICSID memorials: watch for settlement signals

Entry points

1. R-01 Enter through services, not equity: local-content partner on Sangomar/GTA O&M, the Gazoduc Nord works and the SAR–Yamata refinery supply chain.
2. R-02 Price counterparty risk: export-credit or multilateral cover on any Petrosen, RGS or SENELEC exposure.
3. R-03 Map the post-purge Petrosen and Ministry teams now; position for Yakaar partner selection once the IMF and dissolution questions clear.

Sources

[HC] Decrees 2026-1129/1130 (presidence.sn, primature.sn) · Kosmos Q1–Q2 2026 results · Woodside 2025 annual report · MEFP notice of 30 Sep 2026 · ICSID ARB/25/23 docket · Minister Diouf at AEW (AEC, 15 Oct). [MC] Reuters, Bloomberg, Seneweb, APS, RTS, Le Soleil, Ecofin, World Oil, Offshore. [LC] Aggregators, unattributed press. Built from open sources only; the field layer (◆) is withheld.

Bottom line

Petrosen is the hub every deal must cross. The Presidency appoints, the Assembly can block, the IMF and creditors set the financial terms. The growth assets (Yakaar-Teranga, the refinery, 104 blocks) now need partners: services and covered finance enter first.

What the map says

1. 1. HC Every deal crosses Petrosen: a new DG since 1 July, sole holder of Yakaar-Teranga, partner in every producing asset.
2. 2. MC The two veto points sit outside the energy ministry: the Assembly (budget, dissolution from 2 December) and the IMF and creditors (ECF, deals by December).
3. 3. MC The open doors are Yakaar partnering, the refinery and gas-to-power: services and covered finance get in before equity.

Sources

[HC] Decrees 2026-1129/1130 · Kosmos Q2 2026 results · Woodside 2025 annual report · ICSID ARB/25/23 docket · Minister Diouf at AEW (AEC, 15 Oct). [MC] Reuters, Bloomberg, Seneweb, APS, Le Soleil, Ecofin, World Oil. [LC] Aggregators, unattributed press. Built from open sources only; the field layer (◆) is withheld.